INSIGHTS

March 2026

Investment Notes and Insights
February 2026 ended with both a bang and a whimper, to twist a phrase from T.S. Eliot. The “bang” was the attack on Iran; the “whimper” was the aggregate loss in the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500® Index fell -0.77% for the month, concentrated in growth stocks which lost -3.35% as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Investment grade bonds were largely unchanged for the month.

More happily, all Advocacy Wealth portfolios generated positive gross returns when the investments were held for the entire month. All but one of the models had positive returns net of fee. All models rose comfortably above their annual target ranges net of fee year to date, though the sampled term is admittedly short.

How did we achieve these positive results? Diversification. If you have exposure to equities, you do indeed own some U.S. growth stocks within the funds that make up your equity allocation. But if you do, you also own many other types of stocks as well. You also likely own bonds as well as possibly some securities that have little correlation to the returns produced by either stocks or to bonds.

You also have diversification within your holdings away from the U.S. The broad index of global stocks we use as our benchmark for equities (MSCI All Capitalization World Index, “ACWI”) has performed better than the S&P 500® Index over the last year going back to early April. Some of that performance differential can be attributed to the tariff policy of the U.S. as well as U.S. dollar weakness against some other major currencies over that period.

The big individual winning exposures for our clients so far this year are pretty much the same as for 2025:
  • Emerging Markets stocks – the without-China version has done better than the with version
  • Developed Markets stocks ex-U.S.
  • Precious metals and oil
  • Defense stocks
A broadening out in U.S. equity returns can be seen in U.S. MidCap 1   coming to life (+9.38% YTD) and the equally weighted version of the S&P 500® Index outperforming the benchmark cap-weighted version (+7.00% vs +0.67% YTD). That broadening out is healthy in our view, and helps pull some risk out of the stock market, at least in the U.S.

All of which is a very wonky way of trying to tell you that your investments are doing just fine when looked at as a whole. The total value of what you own in your investment account is rising, not falling as you may have thought if you watch financial news. While it is much too early to claim victory either over Iran or the attainment of our annual target returns, the news for now is favorable.

The Twilight Zone
You have travelled on new routes for the last 25 years, which has brought you to this place. A place intensely dark, seemingly impenetrable, perhaps forbidding.

This place may offer an abundance of wealth and possible solutions to the problems you brought with you.

In a forest, even a very dense one, there are many entry points. Here, are there paths? Are there hostiles or friendlies, or both?

Or do you bushwhack, and blaze your own trail to discover what can be uncovered in this new land?

Welcome to the shores of Artificial Intelligence.

Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) will likely transform our lives to at least an extent as did the Internet itself – upon which AI itself depends to be an actor. Its utility, in economic terms,  will likely be a multiplier on the Internet itself.

Without electricity, AI does not exist. Without connectivity, AI does not exist. It is not as simple as unplugging that space heater that may burn your home down, but nor is it that different. So long as humankind controls both inputs, we should continue our existence. (Nod to HAL2000).

That is the “existential’ argument.

The internal argument is what do we do with Frankenstein, now that we have made him?

Dario Amodei, an OpenAi deserter who founded Anthropic with his sister and four others, worries about the jobs AI can do better, faster. The open question here is : cheaper? Sunk costs on at least $1 trillion in data centers has to be factored in. Yes, there is a reverse “J curve” possible: costs could plummet with wide adoption. But, as Davio worries, what is the social cost?


As commentators other than us have pointed out, wealth accrues to the economic beneficiaries of new technologies. Those beneficiaries are often not the inventor or the investors who invested in the inventor’s idea to bring it to life. More often, the economic beneficiaries are those who effectively use the new technology commercially.

Here again, diversification comes into play. Can we or anybody declare with certainty who those economic beneficiaries will be from a technology that can improve itself and likely someday will produce commerce we humans have yet to imagine? Broad
exposure to AI seems the correct posture. Broad enough to own the unidentifiable winners that will more than take care of losses from the companies left behind. Or, as Howard Marks puts it in his February 26 memo: “A moderate position, applied with
selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach.”

We invite you to read his entire memo which we found illuminating and fascinating here:

Not a governing entity in the USA of remaining humans is truly addressing either of the two largest social questions before us. AI is one. The other? Government benefits in the form of Social Security and Medicare. According to the Social Security Trustees' projections, benefits could be reduced by approximately 15% starting around 2030 unless funding conditions change. (The key word in this sentence is “starting”, not the amount or the date). AI will likely help us with the math and various options. AI cannot, however, decide for us.
  1. Specifically, the Schwab Mid-Cap Index.
DISCLOSURES:

*Links are provided for informational purposes only; we are not affiliated with or compensated by these authors or organizations. The content, opinions, or views expressed by these third-parties is their own. Advocacy Wealth did not participate in the creation of this third-party content and does not endorse, adopt, or approve this third-party material and makes no assessment of its accuracy or completeness. The information contained in the linked materials does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or a solicitation.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

There are no guarantees that a strategy will achieve its investment objective. All investments involve risks that you will lose value including the amount of your initial investment. Investments that offer the potential for higher rates of return generally involve greater risk of loss. Clients should review carefully reports or statements produced by us, such as for performance and cash flows, and compare the official custodial records to any such that we provide. Information we provide could vary from custodial statements
based on accounting procedures, reporting dates, or valuation methodologies of certain securities.

The model portfolio performance returns, where shown or discussed, are hypothetical, for illustration only, and do not represent the performance of a specific actual client account. Performance does not reflect actual trading, nor does it include variable transaction expenses which would further reduce returns. Each Advocacy Wealth model series portfolio invests in securities which have weighted allocations that drive the performance results. The underlying constituent performance results, where shown or discussed, reflect actual historical performance. Returns on the investment in the model portfolio assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. The models performance, where shown or discussed, reflects rebalance of those allocations in response to market conditions, as well as at the initial point in time a change was made to an individual allocation within the model.

Clients’ actual return experiences will vary given the clients’ unique respective needs and circumstances. Clients’ actual returns will be reduced by the investment advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of their portfolios. While Advocacy Wealth maintains an annual standard fee schedule for services as disclosed in its Form ADV Part 2A Brochure, the Firm reserves the right to negotiate fees, so not all clients have the same fee schedule and clients’ net returns experiences will not be
uniform.

References to Target Annual Return refer to the return we hope and expect to achieve over time based on the asset allocation. We use that Target number in our financial planning projections. You should understand that the Target Annual Return is NOT guaranteed to happen, even over a long period of time. Failure to achieve the Target will affect your plan significantly.

The S&P 500 Index, and sub-indices reflective of the S&P 500’s various sector components, are unmanaged indices commonly used as benchmarks to measure broad U.S. stock market performance and characteristics and sector-specific performance and characteristics respectively. These are free-float weighted/capitalization-weighted indices. An additional reference is made to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) which is the equal-weight version of the widely used S&P 500. The equal-weight index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight - or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance. The MSCI ACWI Index is an indicator of global markets, capturing approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set, including stocks predominantly across the large and mid market cap spectrum and across a number of countries, both developed and emerging. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index commonly used as a benchmark to measure growth manager performance and characteristics. For all indexes, the reinvestment of dividends, interest, and/or other distributions is assumed. Indexes used as benchmarks cannot be directly invested
in by you. Index performance is also for illustration only, to provide a relative comparison for the model portfolio. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses.

The views expressed represent our assessment of our strategies and the market environment as of the dates represented in the publication and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security or invest in a specific strategy nor used as the sole basis for an investment decision. Views and holdings are subject to change. Reinvestment transactions that involve selling existing investments may involve transaction and taxation costs associated with the sale of those assets as well as transaction costs associated with the purchase of new investments.

International investing: There are special risks associated with international investing, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.

Small/Mid-Capitalization investing: Investments in companies with small or mid-market capitalization ("small/mid-caps") may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility.

Growth Stock Risk: Growth stock investments, whether directly or through ETFs and mutual funds, may be more sensitive to market movements because their prices tend to reflect investors’ future expectations for earnings growth rather than just current profits.

Sector Risk: To the extent a strategy series has substantial holdings within a particular sector, the risks associated with that sector increase.

Liquidity / Market Risk: The strategy series may not be able to purchase or dispose of investments at favorable times or prices or may have to sell investments at a loss. Additionally, market prices of investments held by strategy series may fall rapidly or unpredictably due to a variety of factors, including changing economic, political, or market conditions, or other factors including war, natural disasters, or public health issues, or in response to events that affect particular industries or companies.

High-Yield investing: Investments in high yielding debt securities are generally subject to greater market fluctuations and risk of loss of income and principal, than are investments in lower yielding debt securities.

Inflation Protected Bond investing: Interest rate increases can cause the price of a debt security to decrease. Increases in real interest rates can cause the price of inflation-protected debt securities to decrease. Interest payments on inflation-protected debt securities can be unpredictable.

Interest Rate Risk: This risk refers to the risk that bond prices decline as interest rates rise. Interest rates and bond prices tend to move in opposite directions. Long-term bonds tend to be more sensitive to interest rate changes and therefore may be more volatile.